Mar 17, 2013; Tempe, AZ, USA; San Diego Padres first baseman Yonder Alonso (left) is congratulated by manager Bud Black (right) after scoring during the sixth inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Tempe Diablo Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The MLB season is, of course, a marathon. Six months of a grueling schedule with few days off in between games, coupled with dozens of travel days and nights on the road. There are a lot of games to be played and we’ve seen teams get hot at the end of the year to sneak into the playoffs. However, the Padres could very well have their season all but decided before May rolls around.

In 2012, the Padres were an abysmal 7-17 in the month of April (and for the record, an equally bad 10-18 in May). In fact, at 20-41 in the middle of June, the Padres had the worst record in baseball at that time. But it all started with their terrible April which, by the way, included 15 of their 24 games at the (not so) friendly confines of Petco Park. The Padres dug themselves into too deep of a hole and, despite a very solid 42-33 record post All-Star break, it was too little too late.

So this brings me to this season, which was initially filled with tons of hope and promise, especially given the success at the end of the year in 2012, but has now turned into a “let’s try and keep it together” situation. The Padres will be without their best player, 3B Chase Headley, for at least the first couple weeks of the season. Their main source of power and corner outfielder, Carlos Quentin, is continually battling knee issues and, while he does appear to be healthy enough to play lately, we all know that could change literally any day. Padres starting catcher, Yasmani Grandal, won’t be back with the club until around late May, as he will be serving his 50-game drug suspension.

There’s also questions that remain with CF Cameron Maybin. Is this the year he finally breaks out? Last April, Maybin racked up a grand total of 15 hits. It took him until after the All-Star break to really get going, when he actually hit a fairly respectable .283. Can he pick up where he left off? He’s not a rookie anymore; it’s time for him to step up and produce every day.

And then there’s the starting rotation. A couple years ago, the organization had envisioned a much different crop of starting pitchers this 2013 season. As I mentioned earlier this week in my weekend roundup, Cory Luebke, Joe Wieland, and Casey Kelly were all thought to be in the rotation by now, but all are on their way to or recovering from Tommy John surgery. So what are the Padres left with? A wildly, erratic Edinson Volquez as the team’s number one, a steady but below-average number two in Clayton Richard, and Jason Maquis as their number three starter.  Any club with those three guys manning the front end of the rotation can’t feel too confident about the depth and quality of the arms they can roll out on any given day.

The Padres play 18 games in April, of their 26 total, against division opponents, including six against the World Series Champs Giants and six against the new look Dodgers. The Padres had sub-500 records against both of those teams last season. There’s also six games mixed in with the Rockies as well. There are also series against the Mets and Brewers, two teams that will more than likely be competing for a NL wild card spot. Those are a lot of important games to be playing early in the season with a lineup that is going to be in flux. They cannot afford another slow start to the season like 2012, or else we could be talking Chargers football sooner than we want to be.

So can the Padres play respectable ball in the month of April and at least keep their record around .500 until there’s a bit more stability in the lineup?

September 21, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Casey Kelly (49) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at AT

This past weekend, the Padres lost to the Mariners 1-3 on Friday and were out-slugged by the Rockies 4-10 on Saturday, but did manage to cap the weekend off with a 6-4 win over the Brewers on Sunday. As the season opener for the Padres begins one week from today at Citi Field in New York, the Padres continue to make cuts and fine tune the roster, while even considering making some late additions.

No to Porcello?

It was rumored earlier last week that Padres General Manager Josh Byrnes declined multiple deals that would have brought Detriot Tigers starting pitcher Rick Porcello to San Diego, in exchange for either Padres closer Houston Street or reliever Luke Gregerson.  I can see both sides of why this deal should and should not have been made, but I tend to think it was silly not to make this deal, if it was in fact offered. This was an opportunity to solidify a spot in the rotation with a proven big-leaguer, in a time when the Padres are seemingly scrambling to find a desirable 5th starter. It’s also not as if Gregerson or Street are the one piece that the Padres need to keep in order to compete for a World Series this season. The Padres have always been able to churn out solid bullpen arms and bring in average guys via free agency or trade that become above-average when they arrive in San Diego.  And while Street in particular has been a good closer in the past, his health is a major concern; what good is he if he can’t stay on the field? I guess Byrnes thinks that messing up the bullpen this close to the start of the season would be too damaging, and potentially having guys like Tyson Ross in the rotation is an adequate alternative. Or if the Padres are out of contention come the trade deadline, Byrnes probably figures he would be able to get a bigger haul back for either Street or Gregerson than Rick Porcello, similar to the Mike Adams deal in 2011.

Adios Garcia

Speaking of starting pitching, it was a woefully bad spring for right-hander Freddy Garcia and the Padres finally cut ties with the 36-year-old over the weekend.  Garcia had posted an ERA of 8.77 in 20 2/3 innings so far this spring and apparently that was enough of a sample size. Garcia was competing for a spot in the back of the rotation, but now it seems that the door is open for Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and perhaps even Eric Stults to see innings once the season starts. While Ross has been very effective lately, I’m hoping Cashner gets the job.  Let’s see what this flame-thrower can do with a full-time gig in the rotation.

Tommy John Curse?

With the recent news that Padres pitcher Casey Kelly will need Tommy John surgery, it begs the question; what in the world is going on? Just in the past year, pitcher Cory Luebke, pitcher Joe Wieland, outfielder Rymer Liriano, and now pitcher Casey Kelly (there might be more, feel free to add any names in the comments), will be sidelined because of the reconstructive elbow surgery known as “Tommy John.” I realize that this surgery is becoming more and more common-place around the league, but all four of these players are thought to be significant pieces to the Padres future. It not only disrupts the timeline of these guys contributing at the major league level (each player will be out 12-18 months because of the surgery), but it also screws up the organizational plan for when the Padres are projecting to truly being able to compete year in and year out, which affects future signings, trades, and other moves the organization might make.  Perhaps the Padres are plagued by “The Curse of Tommy John?”

February 16, 2013; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy (15, right) talks to catcher Buster Posey (28, left) during spring training at Scottsdale Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The National League West is expected to be one of the toughest divisions this year. You have the World Champion San Francisco Giants trying to repeat in 2013, the Los Angeles Dodgers dropped a boat load of money in an effort to win the division, the Diamondbacks are always competitive, the Padres, well you know the story with them, and the Colorado Rockies are going through a rebuilding year.

So lets just dive into this. Here are my 2013 National League West Predictions. Predicted records in parenthesis.

San Francisco Giants (91-71)  have the same team leading them back from a championship parade and into the driver’s seat of the NL West. Their starting rotation is best in the division by far. Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Ryan Vogelsong. Just look at it. Wipe the drool off your face. Look at it some more. I hate Matt Cain but he owns us. If Slim Tim can get back half of his CY Young self, the division is theirs to lose. They dont bolster a sexy line-up like the Doyers, but they dont need it when they have Buster Posey, reigning MVP, to single handedly provide offense. They have a proven formula. Can’t bet against it.

Arizona Diamondbags (88-74) didn’t have the season they expected in 2012. Their pitching couldn’t match what it did in 2011, leading them to the top of the NL West. A bit of a shake-up in the offseason hopes their pitching staff can find that 2011 steez. With the addition of Brandon McCarthey, and Wade Miley coming off a break out year, this rotation could be just as devastating as the Giants. Tyler Skaggs will hold the 5th spot in the rotation for the 5th spot in the rotation until Daniel Hudson comes back from Tommy John surgery after the All-Star break. Hudson, Kennedy, Cahill, McCarthey and Miley. *pause for a moment of envy*.  Oh, and Heath Bell is in AZ. Maybe a set-up role will help him find his old self. That’s a scary thought for an already promising pitching staff. On the offensive side, their infield alone boasts a combined .297 BA and a .350 OBP. They got enough back with Martin Prado to fill in for Chris Johnson‘s production at the plate. Also, Aaron Hill and Paul Goldschmidt combined for 46 HR and 167 RBI last year. If that production can stay up and the pitching develops into what it is suppose to be, the Dbags could possibly steal the division from the Giants. But that’s the problem. Too many “if’s” and not enough proven consistency keeps them short of the division crown but in the hunt for a Wild Card spot.

Los Angeles Doyers (86-76) do not have enough pitching to beat out the above mentioned teams. Their line-up LOOKS really good but if they get off to a slow start or hit a rut, I think the team’s character will crumble under the pressure. I can’t remember the last time there was this much hype around baseball in LA so it’s going to be a new feeling for a lot of those guys and who knows how they will handle it. On top of that, no one is scared of Aaron Harang, Chad Billingsley, Josh Beckett or closer Brandon League who converted only 15 of 21 save opportunities. The studded line-up will only get the Doyers so far. Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke will not be able to shoulder the load of the entire rotation, leaving them just short of a playoff spot.

SAN DIEGO PADRES (81-81) have my homer optimism drenched all over that predicted record. This team is full of “if’s” just like the Dbags. Difference is their “if” guys have shown more productivity than our “if” guys. I’m done with Venable. We are counting on Jason Marquis and Eric Stults to have the same consistency they had down the stretch last year. Can they have that success over 30 starts? Andrew Cashner is being counted on to be a productive starter this season. Is his arm going to stay healthy? Another big question is Nick Hundley. He has some big steroid filled shoes to step in to. Worse part about it is, if he fails miserably, no one is sure how Grandal is going to comeback. Just how much did the ‘roids help his game? Remember when Shawn Merriman got caught juicing? He was done. Never the same player. Different sport, whatever, just saying. Our pitching is still depleted and being filled by garbage. BUT if the pitching staff can step up and Luebke can be his old self when he comes back, the Padres wont be terrible. If Grandal and Hundley can both be productive, the Padres wont be terrible. If Quentin can play 130 games, the Padres wont be terrible. If Gyorko can be a stud and hold down 2nd base, the Padres wont be terrible. See what I mean with the “if” differences between 2nd and 4th Place? Ours are a little far-fetched…but totally possible.

Colorado Rockies (68-94) had the best offense in 2012. Yes they play at Coors Field, but they also have Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, Tyler Colvin coming off a decent year, Dexter Fowler continuing to get better and Willin Rosario proving to be a presence at the plate. But their pitching is so sorry, no line-up could cover up for that pitching staff. The lowest ERA held by a starter was Jhoulys Chacin at 4.43. Relief pitcher Rex Brothers had the most wins and best record of the entire staff at 8-2 and a 3.86 ERA in 75 appearances. No nickname for the Rockies. Its too easy to kick someone when they dont have two legs to walk on. I dont feel sorry for them but I am not threatened by them either so it is easy to take a passive approach to them. No pitching in this division leaves them with no chance.