During the 2012 season, the Padres used a number of different players in the leadoff spot, and the team had their fair share of issues determining who their best option as in said spot.  Some of these players performed extremely well when they hit first in the batting order, others however struggled there (Cameron Maybin), yet performed well in other places in the lineup (2012: .171 Batting 1st, .326 Batting 6th).

Shortstop Everth Cabrera was one Friars player in particular who shined down the stretch last year in a leadoff role, and his particular Offensive skill-set gives him the potential to be an effective weapon to insert at the top of San Diego’s lineup on a daily basis in 2013.

Hopefully Cabrera can emerge as San Diego’s every-day leadoff man in 2013. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

2012 was a career year for the now 26 year old Shortstop in many respects.  Cabrera set career-high’s in At-Bats (398), Hits (98), and Doubles (19), and most impressively: Stolen Bases (44).

In fact, Cabrera’s 44 Stolen Bases led the National League in 2012, and that number is even more impressive when one considers how Cabrera did not even begin the regular season with the Padres (he was called up from Tucson in mid-May).  “Cabby” really found his groove on Offense and on the base-paths last year when he was used as San Diego’s leadoff hitter over the last month and a half of the 2012 campaign.

Beginning on August 19 and continuing until October 3rd, Everth shined in the 27 games he led off for the Friars.  Cabrera hit .282, smacked 2 Doubles, 1 Triple, scored 13 Runs and drove in 5, and stole 23 of his 44 total Stolen Bases over said stretch.  Not incredible numbers by any means, but it was still a very effective stat line for someone who helped set the table for the Friars during their late season run of successful baseball.  This however is not me saying that Cabrera was without his own faults as the Padres’ leadoff man though.

The Switch-Hitting Shortstop had his issues with posting a high On-Base Percentage (.325) in the leadoff role, and this was largely due to his problems with Strikeouts and plate discipline overall.  During those 27 games, Cabrera Struck Out 26 times and Walked only 12 times.  I should also add that this was during a season in which he Struck Out a total of 110 times over a total of 449 Plate Appearances (just over 24.4%, or almost 1 out of every 4 times up to bat).

Plate discipline aside, Cabrera’s speed and overall ability to steal bases successfully when he does get on (44 out of 48, 91.6% success rate in 2012) could be exactly what the Padres need to kick-start their Offense early in 2013.  Having Cabrera on base in front of guys like Headley, Quentin, Grandal and Alonso is a recipe for favorable Offensive output, and the Padres’ productivity at the plate is sure to rise if their Shortstop emerges as a consistent force out of the leadoff spot in front of the team’s power-hitters.

Final Thoughts

With Logan Forsythe taking reps in the Outfield and the news that the Shortstop position is “Cabrera’s to lose” according to Padres.com Beat Writer Corey Brock, it certainly appears that Everth will receive the opportunity to play every-day for the Friars in 2013.  With the chance to play every day will come the chance to be the Padres’ every-day “table-setter,” a role which Cabrera has all the tools necessary to excel in for the team.

This is not to say that Cabrera will not have to out-perform the Right Field platoon of Chris Denorfia and Will Venable for time to hit leadoff this year.  Although both players are sure to split time out in Right, both performed just as well if not better than Cabrera last year when they hit first in 2012.

Denorfia (51 Games, 45 Games Started Batting 1st) not only posted the highest Batting Average (.303) of all of San Diego’s regular leadoff hitters, but also was tops or tied for 1st in On-Base Percentage (.345), Home Runs (5) Slugging Percentage (.468), OPS (.822), and Runs (31).  Not to be outdone, Venable (52 Games, 48 Games Started) ranked 1st or tied for 1st in Home Runs (5), Doubles (15), RBI’s (22), and Walks (17) to go along with a .264 Batting Average.

Like at Shortstop, the opportunity to handle the Leadoff duties should be Cabrera’s to lose.  Thus, watching who will inevitably step up for the Padres as the leadoff hitter will definitely be something to follow during the next two months.  And it will definitely be interesting to see if Cabrera can build off of his finish to the 2012 season as San Diego’s “table-setter.”

Readers: Can/Will Cabrera step up into the Leadoff Role this year?  Are Denorfia and/or Venable better options?  Share below

Stats & Contract Information Courtesy of: Baseball Reference

Maybin has really done well over the last month and a half. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE

Everything  it seemed hit rock-bottom statistically for Maybin around August 18th of this year though.  Through 110 games, Maybin carried only a .211 Batting Average, a .287 On-Base Percentage, and a .316 Slugging Percentage.  In addition, Maybin had only accumulated 23 Extra-Base Hits (13 Doubles, 4 Triples, 6 Home Runs), logged 37 RBI’s, and Walked only 37 times compared to the 87 times he had Struck Out.  The Friars’ Centerfielder however has rallied since that 0 for 3 performance on August 18th, and has been on an absolute tear at the plate ever since.  During Maybin’s last 31 games and last 114 At-Bats (entering Thursday night), he has put up some astounding numbers:

.377 Batting Average, .408 On-Base Percentage, .482 Slugging Percentage, .981 OPS,  9 Extra Base Hits (7 Doubles, 1 Triple, 1 Home Runs), logged 9 RBI’s, Scored 16 Runs, and best of all, 6 Walks compared to 17 Strikeouts.

This hot-streak not only elevated Maybin’s Batting Average .039 points from .211 to .250, it also increased his On-Base Percentage .027 points, and his Slugging Percentage by .039!  Granted, the rises might not appear to be huge.  Yet when one considers how many games have already been played, statistical spikes like that are pretty astounding.

Final Thoughts

Maybin has the perfect combination of speed and agility to man the spacious Outfield in Petco Park.  If Maybin he can just find a way to hit with some consistency over the course of an entire year, the Padres would be in great shape not only in the field, but in their batting order as well.  In terms of where Maybin can do the most damage as a hitter, the 7th or 8th spots would be the best places to put someone with his speed, and great places to put a player with a little bit of power behind the “big guns.”  Plus, his speed can even come in handy at either the Leadoff or 2nd spot in the batting order if Maybin is able to reach base with consistency.  Maybin has flashed his potential so many times during his career with this franchise that I am hoping when he “finally puts everything together,” he does it in a Padres uniform.  I tip my cap to Maybin for his late-season efforts, and he has been a big reason why the team has done so well down the stretch.

Stats Courtesy of: Baseball Reference

After the series at Wrigley, the Padres now possess the League’s worst record (17-35) and it certainly appears like they will be competing with the Twins and Cubs all season long for the dubious title of “worst team of 2012.”  But even the Padres of 2012 would still finish with a better record than the 1969 expansion club which finished with a franchise-worst 110 Losses, right?  Well, as it stands right now, there are a number of factors which could work against San Diego and could cause them to come close to, or even break the ’69 team’s record for worst season ever.  So like my Offensive projections over the weekend, today I want to forecast where the Padres project to finish this season if they keep up their current pace, and discuss how and why they might just make team history for all of the wrong reason.

Can the Padres figure out how to climb out of the cellar and play winning baseball? Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-US PRESSWIRE

2012 San Diego Padres

Record Through 52 Games: 17-35

Projected Finish: 53-109

I do not think it is a question of whether or not the Padres will have 100 Losses on the season.  I believe it is a question of how many games plus 100 the Padres will lose in 2012.  As it stands now, if the Padres continue to win/lose at their rate right now, they will drop 109 on the season.  The good thing about that number is the fact that the team record for losses and earning the dubious distinction as the worst team in franchise history is 110.  The sad part about the team which set that record is the fact that they were an expansion team which played in their first season ever.  Granted, the Padres project to finish with a slightly better record on the year than their ’69 counterparts.  Yet there are a number of reasons (some out of their control) as to why San Diego might continue to drop games this year and finish with 110+ losses.

Injuries

Let me be the first to say that injuries have really hurt this team, and are a legitimate, if not the biggest excuse as to why this team has struggled so mightily this season.  It hurts for any team to see three of their projected Opening Day rotation Starters go down, but the losses of their two best Pitchers in the forms of Tim Stauffer and Cory Luebke, plus Dustin Moseley destroys a team like the Padres’ chances of playing winning baseball.  It also did not help that Relief Pitcher Micah Owings and Closer Huston Street also have missed significant time due to injuries as well.

The position players have suffered the bites of the injury bug as well.  Carlos Quentin has finally worked his way back from his knee issue after he missed the first 30% of the season.  Shortstop Jason Bartlett may have under-produced over his career in San Diego, but the veteran has been out for a couple of weeks because of health issues as well.  James Darnell and Logan Forsythe also have missed significant time, and now Cameron Maybin has been hampered by a leg problem.  With all of these injuries, San Diego will likely have trouble finding enough big league talent to finish the season in one piece.

Poor Offensive Production

The facts are what they are: as a team, the Padres just cannot get things done at the plate.  I know that I am beating a dead-horse here, but let me go into how sad San Diego’s Offense has been.  This is a club which is hitting a collective .224 (Ranked 28th out of 30 M.L.B. teams) on the season, an OBP of .301 (27th) has a team Slugging Percentage of .345 (29th), an OPS of .646 (28th), and has issues scoring Runs (167, 28th) because of said numbers and low productivity.

We can blame Petco and its dimensions and the new Hitting Coaches all we want, but this team on the whole cannot hit on a consistent enough basis to win games on a consistent basis.  The timely hitting is just not there, and the Padres struggle to manufacture Runs in all ballparks, not just at home.  It is not rocket-science, when a team hits .224 and cannot do the little things to score Runs in their limited opportunities, they lose games more than they win.  It is as simple as that right there.

I know, I know, Quentin had a fine series against the Cubs.  But for those of you that did not know, Wrigley Field is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the entire League, and the wind was blowing out during the entire series from what I could see.  I do have faith that Quentin will have himself a fine season and should help to improve the Padres’ lineup, but let us wait and see him produce at Petco before we jump to any conclusions.  Because as it stands now, the Padres cannot hit at Petco, and can do very little elsewhere as a collective for that matter. 

Make-Shift Bullpen

This one hurts, because I remember the days when the Padres’ Bullpen was a formidable unit.  Yet because of injuries and poor performances, the Bullpen is a question mark due to the vast amount of inexperience and unproven nature of many which will be asked to protect leads over the coming months.

I am personally not on the “Andrew Chashner Bandwagon” just yet.  The guy throws smoke, there is no doubt about that, and that is all well and good.  Yet he is too wild at times, and has gotten in trouble because of it this season.  His 21 Hits and 15 Walks in 23.1 Innings have told the story of his inconsistency, and his 3.86 ERA is simply too high for a guy needed to shut teams down late in games.  Dale Thayer has done a decent job as Street’s replacement, and has nailed down 5 Saves on the season.  However, Thayer is only a temporary solution, and had his issues as of late including giving up the game-winning Home Run yesterday.  Thayer has given up 7 Runs in 11.2 Innings of work, 14 Hits, and 2 Home Runs this season as well.  If this level of play continues, San Diego will be anxious for Street to return.

As for the rest of the Bullpen, it is populated by some unproven guys who began the year in the Minors and are getting their first big tastes’ of big league action this season.  Miles Mikolas, Alex Hinshaw, and Brad Brach will all be asked to shoulder the load throughout the rest of the season.  They will likely be asked to eat much needed Innings as well because of the fact that some stop-gap veterans in the form of Jeff Suppan, Eric Stults, and likely Jason Marquis will be starting games on a consistent basis for the rest of the season due to injuries.  Getting themselves leads will be hard enough, I just hope this group in San Diego’s Bullpen can nail down an extra victory or two over the course of the year.

Final Thoughts

I projected San Diego to finish last in the Division this season because I did not think they had enough talent in “the now” to compete with the likes of the Giants, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks.  However, I had no thoughts or visions that the team would be this bad through 52 Games on the season.  I figured that San Diego would likely win somewhere in the neighborhood of 75 to 79 Games and show marked improvement in many areas, most notably in Offensive production.

Yet here we are, Padres fans.  Our favorite club is stuck in the cellar, and it looks like it will be where they stay for the entire season.  As I alluded to before, it is now not a question of if this team will finish with a losing record, it will be a question of how many “L’s” in the “L Column” they will put up on the year.  Furthermore, it will be interesting to see how they stack up against the ’69 club.

As the 80′s Pop group Bananarama said: “It’s a cruel, cruel summer.”  And I am fixing for the long haul with this group, because it will likely be a “cruel summer” for the players, and those of us who will watch this team.  I just hope the Padres figure something out to avoid franchise futility and win a few games here and there over the rest of the season.

Statistics Courtesy of: ESPN.com Padres Team Page and Padres.com Season Records Page

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