For awhile, I convinced myself to be content with the Padres holding on to their bullets. There is no need to blow up your entire farm for one player, especially if that player does not convert the team from pretender to contender. But then Keith Law’s Top 100 Prospects for 2013

“What? I’m only gone 50 games.” Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

was released and my mind completely flipped. Six Padres were listed, four are carry overs from 2012. Their 2012 ranking is in parenthesis.

36. Austin Hedges

51. Max Fried

54. Rymer Liriano (40)

60. Casey Kelly (32)

70. Jedd Gyorko (90)

88. Joe Ross (49)

Players ranked last year all went down a few spots except for Gyorko, who is arguably our most sought out prospect. But what do these rankings mean? What percentage of the guys ranked between #50 and #60 become major contributors on a big league team? Whats the probability all of them becoming everyday starters?

I have no answer to any of those questions, but I did come to a conclusion.

Since 2010, Kelly has gone from #18 on Law’s list down to #60 where he sits today. He got a few starts with the Padres, albeit prematurely, and looked OK. He was always projected to be, at best, a #2 starter in the rotation but more likely a #3 guy.

You know who else was ranked around #60 not too long ago? Simon Castro. I do not want to compare but I do want to point out the delicacy of these rankings. Castro was ranked #64 on Law’s list in 2011. We moved him to Chicago in the Quentin trade. Castro still has not been called up.

Jaff Decker was ranked #50 on MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo list of top 50 prospects  in 2010.  In 2011, he was #46 on Keith Law’s list. He has since been leapfrogged by our current set of highly touted prospects.

Unless you have a guy like Jason Heyward, Mike Trout, Stephen Strasburg, guys consistently listed #1 or #2 on EVERYONE’S list, they’re not a sure thing.

In the Peavy deal, we acquired the two best pitchers in the White Sox’s  system in Aaron Poreda and Clayton Richard. Poreda was suppose to be a stud. He’s not even on our team anymore. Three of the four players we received in the trade are not on the team.

That is how delicate and hard gauging prospects is. A sure thing can always blow up in your face and all of a sudden you are left without an ace on the staff. Even the Latos trade took a knock with the Grandal suspension.

If Byrnes had a deal on the table set for Stanton or Upton, the trigger needed to be pulled. Both are proven players and are only going to get better. Holding on to prospects and rejecting trades for players ready to play now will leave the Padres selling us the team on potential. “Yeah we’re 35-64 but look at all the high-ceiling draft picks on the field.” Is that what you want to hear in 2 years?

Why do we have to be the team that sits on prospects when we have the bullets to be firing away and taking proven talent from teams? We’re still getting a feel for our new front office but Byrnes being gun-shy for a player of Stanton or Upton’s caliber leaves me wondering if banking on our highly ranked farm wont blow up in our face.

For reference, here is an extended list of invited players along with their minor or major league stats.

RHP
Johnny Barbato
Wilfredo Boscan
Brandon Kloess
Sean O’Sullivan
Kevin Quackenbush
Jason Ray
Donn Roach
Daniel Stange
Matt Stites
Jerry Sullivan
Thad Weber

LHP
Robbie Erlin

INF
Jonathan Galvez
Jedd Gyorko
Gregorio Petit
Cody Ransom

C
Jason Hagerty
Austin Hedges
Rene Rivera
Eddy Rodriguez

Mar 16, 2012; Peoria, AZ, USA; San Diego Padres second baseman Jedd Gyorko (70) singles during the second inning against the Los Angeles Angels at the Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Interestingly enough, no additional outfielders beyond the 40 man roster are currently invited.  It must be noted, that non-roster invitees do also include that special class of young prospects that are getting a taste of the major league experience.  Of this group, notable prospects include Quakenbush, Erlin, Gyorko, Hagerty, and Hegdes.  In particular, Robbie Erlin and Jedd Gyorko are candidates to make the team in the Spring, and furthermore even provide impact play.  Gyorko is projected to have the highest ceiling and is the reason that Josh Byrnes would even remotely feel comfortable entertaining a Chase Headley rumor.  Gyorko was noticeably absent from last year’s Sept call-ups.  The direct stated reason for Gyorko’s omission was that there was a need to protect various pitchers returning from injury to the 40-man roster thus Gyorko was left off the roster and thus not eligible for a Sept promotion.  As we see even to this day, that that roster status persists, and will persist into Spring Training.  The additional corollary benefit of Gyorko’s omission, was to protect a good player from reaching salary arbitration milestones before  necessary.  This only happens to prospects that fall under the impact ceiling, and it does happen to the best of them.  As the off-season unwinds, it may very turn out that Gyorko will be our biggest addition to last year’s fine team.  Expect him to rival or exceed the 2012 performance of Logan Forsythe.

It was a pretty good interview and I enjoyed listening to Josh talk casually about the Padres and revealed some of his feelings and thought processes. The interview starts with a recap of last year, to which Byrnes first cites injuries as the major cause of the slow start, and then begins to cite factors for the team’s turn around. He talked about swapping out middle infield, calling up Grandal, and getting Quentin back. He also credits the bullpen, and emphasized Headley heating up.

MLB Hot Stove projected Padres 2013 lineup:
SS Cabrera
2B Forsythe
3B Headley
RF Quentin
1B Alonso
LF Venable
CF Maybin
C Hundley

Only comment I have, is whether or not Gyorko is given a shot to compete for 2B against Forsythe in Spring Training. Does anyone else think that Jedd Gyorko and Logan Forsythe have very unique sounding names?  They deserve each other.  Here’s to a future Forysthe/Gyorko platoon.  You bet.

At this point, Reynolds interrupts Byrnes and says he doesn’t want to be a Debbie Downer by bringing up Grandal…but does any way. Josh calls it “a big blow” and calls the bad news “a pit in the stomach” Reynolds continues to interrupt, and brings up more bad news in the form of Cashner injury. Byrnes clarifies what happened with Cashner, and says he’s a hunter. While cleaning a carcass with a friend, Cashner cut his throwing thumb and lacerated a tendon, requiring surgery.  Byrnes talks about Cashner as a player who in a short role can throw 100, and that with the Padre payroll, he has to take stab at upside.  Does bring up Cashner having unique talent, but also having yet to establish himself as big leaguer.  Also says that Cashner is tall, and throws with a clean delivery.

Matt V starts to ask Josh about Chase and how’s he’s a home grown talent and not to be traded, at which point Reynolds interrupts again, and talks about Headley wanting 100M. Incidentally, Reynolds was dismissed from ESPN a few years ago for sexual harassment. His official story was that he hugged a female intern.  Josh is captain cool and smiles him off.  Matt V, does some damage control and adds context.  Cites that Headley is “willing to bend over backwards for the you guys.”

Byrnes continues to talk about going forward, and clarifies for the 25 man roster that he expects 18 pitchers, 17 with experience, with rookie Robbie Erlin rounding out the last spot.  Byrnes will continue to look for upgrades, but expects people to return, including players like Leukbe, Blanks, Darnell.  Emphasized games in April count.

Matt V emphasizes the home road HR split of 47 – 74, and queries Josh about the fences. Josh talks about the movement in the left center gap & beach location in right field. Matt V asks how much of this change is a knee-jerk reaction, and questions the science.  Josh empahsized some science, but talks more about the mood and talks about the thought process with special assistants, Loretta, Ausmus, Hoffman. Apparently, they must have all read a previous Chicken Friars post.

Reynolds baits Josh again, and this time about Justin Upton. Josh speaks highly of Justin, and sounds excited and genuinely enamored of his former prospect. Nevertheless, talks about being the current Venable/Deno platoon in RF, and also talks about Rymer Liriano waiting in the wings.  That seems to tip Josh’s hand on the matter.