- When the Cubs come to town, Anthony Rizzo does something he almost never did as a Padre – hit homeruns. This forces our hand and we trade Yonder Alonso, Andrew Cashner, and Carlos Quentin to the Dodgers for Adrian Gonzalez, whom we immediately trade to the Cubs, along with Logan Forsythe, for Rizzo. Upon his triumphant return, Rizzo breaks his leg.

- Joey Votto hits the longest homerun in Petco park history. The ball finally comes down on 4^th avenue at the nightclub FLUXX. It knocks out the door guy, resulting in a mob of patrons rushing into the club, and none of them are wearing Dress Code appropriate shoes.

- Carl Crawford hits three homeruns in two games, resulting in the Dodgers giving him a $98 million/4-yr extension.

- Huston Street demands a trade after leading the league with 22 blown saves in the second month of the season. A seething Street glares into the same executive box Klesko and Nevin used to stare at ten years prior, but that box is empty. It’s empty.

- The Giants petition to move to San Diego. No one says, “Yes” but no one says “No” either.

- Cameron Maybin over runs the fence and ends up at the Park at the Park staring at a little kid holding a wiffle ball bat who has a better average than Maybin.

- The Mets sign Micah Owings as a position player. He hits 37 homeruns, 30 against the Padres.

- Cory Luebke asks for a trade after realizing, “This sucks.”

- Major League Baseball, Minor League Baseball, The Mexican Pacific League, Cuban League, Nippon Professional Baseball League and the Korean Baseball Organization all relocate their Homerun Derby’s to Petco.

- After hitting .213 with two homeruns through June, Justin Upton gives the OK to any pre-existing trade scenario that had him going to San Diego.

- The Padres give up a record 792 homeruns.

- During the Pirates visit to Petco, Neil Walker hits eight homers and drives in 28 runs. He is immediately the most added player in the history of Fantasy Baseball.

- One week later, Neil Walker immediately becomes the most dropped player in the history of Fantasy Baseball.

- The All-American Girls Professional Baseball League reforms. All four teams play every single game at Petco. Geena Davis hits the first homerun in AAGPBL history on opening day.

- Petco is renamed Hitco and no one likes it.

- When the Rockies come to Petco, Jeff Francis gives Anthony Bass a big hug, while reassuring him, “It’s not your fault.”

- Opposing pitchers garner a collective 17.54 ERA while at PETCO, but are taken to very nice steak dinners by their teams hitters every night for the next three years.

- Every member of the San Diego sports media claims to “Have seen this coming!”

- Jason Heyward asks to play for the Padres on his off days. No one says, “Yes”, but every eleventh day a mysterious player named Hason Jeyward roams Petco’s right field.

-  The Padres begin to experiment with a “hologram wall”, which is “taken down” during the top of every inning.

- Attendance records are destroyed; when the stadium is packed with fans of whatever opposing team we are currently playing.

- While the Padres fail to make the playoffs, The Diamondbacks win the division; the Giants and Dodgers get the two wild cards. All three teams send “Thank You” cards to Tom Garfinkel.

YOLO! (Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports)

Well, there it is! My “Fences Moved-In Predictions 2013 – Opposing Teams Edition”!  The best part is – it’s all true! Every single prediction made will become reality and then we will all sit by ourselves and wonder why in the hell we griped about the fences in the first place! Can’t wait for the season!

For more Padres stuff and other things you might not care about follow me on Twitter @dallas_mc

Parts of Petco’s fences will be moved in this season. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Back in late October it was revealed that work would begin this offseason at San Diego’s Petco Park to bring in portions of the ball-park’s fences, and the movement of the Visiting Bullpen from Right-Field foul area to behind the Padres’ Bullpen in Left-Center Field.

This move of course made many Friars fans, including myself, extremely happy to see some of the stadium’s cavernous dimensions altered.  While I have never been an advocate of smaller “band-box” parks, Petco’s Pitcher-friendliness and cavernous nature were a bit too much for my taste.

But why I am I bringing the Padres’ recent decision to alter the stadium up right now?  Well, as the title states, a photo gallery is now up on the San Diego Union-Tribune’s website of the current construction process and the different areas of the park receiving make-overs.  The link for the gallery is right here, so if you have some time to take a quick look, it is definitely worth it.

I for one cannot wait to see what the ball-park looks like when the construction process is finished, and I certainly am interested to see whether or not the new dimensions are in fact “Hitter-Friendlier” than the old ones.

September 8, 2012; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres third baseman Chase Headley (7) during his turn at bat in the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE

Their goal is to spur more offense and generate more HRs, and to produce more fan excitement. But will it all work as planned? As the article from the Padre MLB site states, “you don’t need an MBA in Quantitative Analysis to know what you were seeing at Petco Park,” this fan begins to wonder if the opposite is true.  Perhaps the Padre management board would have been better off with an MBA on board to help complement their decision making.  While shorter ballpark dimensions will have a positive increase on HRs generated at Petco, it is the air density and proximity of the water that have a greater dampening effect on HRs, and thus cause the large home to road splits we have seen from the Padre hitters.Consider the following data, sourced from ESPN Padre Season Stats Splits, and also the following data, sourced from National Climatic Data Center, regarding historical averages for barometric pressure, from San Diego North Island Coronado.

As a fan, I wished I had better access to data, but for the purposes of discussion and to make a point, the above data suffices.  One can compare HRs per month by the Padres and compare that with air density or barometric pressure in San Diego close to the ballpark, month by month.

Month     P(inHg)      HRs

———————————-

April           29.99             11

May            29.95             15

June           29.91             19

July            29.90             22

Aug            29.88             26

Sept           29.88             25

A regression does not imply full causality, and thus there are other factors that contribute to HRs outside of air pressure.  Nevertheless the reasoning is sound and holds its own against sensitivity analysis and the pattern can be seen.  When air density decreases, there is less content and “stuff” in the air, and the ball travels further because there is less friction.  Just like in Colorado, it is the altitude and air density that increase HRs over park dimensions, and just like in San Francisco, it is the proximity to the water and air density that decrease HRs over park dimensions, so it is at Petco Park and our air density and proximity to water that hurt our offense over park dimensions.

So what does this mean for Padre hitters?  Consider the case of our two main power threats, Chase Headley and Carlos Quentin.  Last season Chase had a fine first half, coupled with an extraordinary second half.  A lot of writers unfortunately choose to conflate analysis or reasons as to why Chase suddenly did better near the end of the seasons, such as seeing the ball better and taking it to the pitcher.  What they missed out on, was that almost all Padres hitters experienced power surges and increases to OPS late in the year.  It is my contention that it is the air density, which is related to temperature and humidity, that can change how Padre players hit and pitch at Petco Park.  Expect to see Chase struggle early again next year, and then catch fire as the season progresses.  Carlos Quentin, who was once an AL MVP candidate, consistently demonstrated higher OPS numbers than Chase.  Unfortunately, Carlos got hurt and worn down near the end of the year, and missed out on the late season HR party.  Expect next year to see Carlos be our best deep threat, with Chase right behind him given health and availability.