September 21, 2012; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Casey Kelly (49) delivers a pitch during the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at AT

This past weekend, the Padres lost to the Mariners 1-3 on Friday and were out-slugged by the Rockies 4-10 on Saturday, but did manage to cap the weekend off with a 6-4 win over the Brewers on Sunday. As the season opener for the Padres begins one week from today at Citi Field in New York, the Padres continue to make cuts and fine tune the roster, while even considering making some late additions.

No to Porcello?

It was rumored earlier last week that Padres General Manager Josh Byrnes declined multiple deals that would have brought Detriot Tigers starting pitcher Rick Porcello to San Diego, in exchange for either Padres closer Houston Street or reliever Luke Gregerson.  I can see both sides of why this deal should and should not have been made, but I tend to think it was silly not to make this deal, if it was in fact offered. This was an opportunity to solidify a spot in the rotation with a proven big-leaguer, in a time when the Padres are seemingly scrambling to find a desirable 5th starter. It’s also not as if Gregerson or Street are the one piece that the Padres need to keep in order to compete for a World Series this season. The Padres have always been able to churn out solid bullpen arms and bring in average guys via free agency or trade that become above-average when they arrive in San Diego.  And while Street in particular has been a good closer in the past, his health is a major concern; what good is he if he can’t stay on the field? I guess Byrnes thinks that messing up the bullpen this close to the start of the season would be too damaging, and potentially having guys like Tyson Ross in the rotation is an adequate alternative. Or if the Padres are out of contention come the trade deadline, Byrnes probably figures he would be able to get a bigger haul back for either Street or Gregerson than Rick Porcello, similar to the Mike Adams deal in 2011.

Adios Garcia

Speaking of starting pitching, it was a woefully bad spring for right-hander Freddy Garcia and the Padres finally cut ties with the 36-year-old over the weekend.  Garcia had posted an ERA of 8.77 in 20 2/3 innings so far this spring and apparently that was enough of a sample size. Garcia was competing for a spot in the back of the rotation, but now it seems that the door is open for Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and perhaps even Eric Stults to see innings once the season starts. While Ross has been very effective lately, I’m hoping Cashner gets the job.  Let’s see what this flame-thrower can do with a full-time gig in the rotation.

Tommy John Curse?

With the recent news that Padres pitcher Casey Kelly will need Tommy John surgery, it begs the question; what in the world is going on? Just in the past year, pitcher Cory Luebke, pitcher Joe Wieland, outfielder Rymer Liriano, and now pitcher Casey Kelly (there might be more, feel free to add any names in the comments), will be sidelined because of the reconstructive elbow surgery known as “Tommy John.” I realize that this surgery is becoming more and more common-place around the league, but all four of these players are thought to be significant pieces to the Padres future. It not only disrupts the timeline of these guys contributing at the major league level (each player will be out 12-18 months because of the surgery), but it also screws up the organizational plan for when the Padres are projecting to truly being able to compete year in and year out, which affects future signings, trades, and other moves the organization might make.  Perhaps the Padres are plagued by “The Curse of Tommy John?”

For awhile, I convinced myself to be content with the Padres holding on to their bullets. There is no need to blow up your entire farm for one player, especially if that player does not convert the team from pretender to contender. But then Keith Law’s Top 100 Prospects for 2013

“What? I’m only gone 50 games.” Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

was released and my mind completely flipped. Six Padres were listed, four are carry overs from 2012. Their 2012 ranking is in parenthesis.

36. Austin Hedges

51. Max Fried

54. Rymer Liriano (40)

60. Casey Kelly (32)

70. Jedd Gyorko (90)

88. Joe Ross (49)

Players ranked last year all went down a few spots except for Gyorko, who is arguably our most sought out prospect. But what do these rankings mean? What percentage of the guys ranked between #50 and #60 become major contributors on a big league team? Whats the probability all of them becoming everyday starters?

I have no answer to any of those questions, but I did come to a conclusion.

Since 2010, Kelly has gone from #18 on Law’s list down to #60 where he sits today. He got a few starts with the Padres, albeit prematurely, and looked OK. He was always projected to be, at best, a #2 starter in the rotation but more likely a #3 guy.

You know who else was ranked around #60 not too long ago? Simon Castro. I do not want to compare but I do want to point out the delicacy of these rankings. Castro was ranked #64 on Law’s list in 2011. We moved him to Chicago in the Quentin trade. Castro still has not been called up.

Jaff Decker was ranked #50 on MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo list of top 50 prospects  in 2010.  In 2011, he was #46 on Keith Law’s list. He has since been leapfrogged by our current set of highly touted prospects.

Unless you have a guy like Jason Heyward, Mike Trout, Stephen Strasburg, guys consistently listed #1 or #2 on EVERYONE’S list, they’re not a sure thing.

In the Peavy deal, we acquired the two best pitchers in the White Sox’s  system in Aaron Poreda and Clayton Richard. Poreda was suppose to be a stud. He’s not even on our team anymore. Three of the four players we received in the trade are not on the team.

That is how delicate and hard gauging prospects is. A sure thing can always blow up in your face and all of a sudden you are left without an ace on the staff. Even the Latos trade took a knock with the Grandal suspension.

If Byrnes had a deal on the table set for Stanton or Upton, the trigger needed to be pulled. Both are proven players and are only going to get better. Holding on to prospects and rejecting trades for players ready to play now will leave the Padres selling us the team on potential. “Yeah we’re 35-64 but look at all the high-ceiling draft picks on the field.” Is that what you want to hear in 2 years?

Why do we have to be the team that sits on prospects when we have the bullets to be firing away and taking proven talent from teams? We’re still getting a feel for our new front office but Byrnes being gun-shy for a player of Stanton or Upton’s caliber leaves me wondering if banking on our highly ranked farm wont blow up in our face.

Liriano is a rising minor league star right now. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-US PRESSWIRE

Liriano, the Padres #1 Prospect according to MLB.com, did a fine job with the Javelinas and proved to those who watched that he is deserving of a #1 ranking within the organization.  In 22 games, Liriano hit .319 (29 for 91) with 5 Doubles, 4 Home Runs, 15 RBI’s, and an awesome 23 Runs scored.  In addition, Liriano logged a .376 On-Base Percentage and Slugged .505.  Quackenbush, also a member of the Javelinas, emerged as one of the best Relief Pitchers during League play this Fall.  In 11 Appearances (11.0 Innings), Quackenbush pitched for a League-leading 6 Saves, Struck Out 16 batters, and put up a solid 2.45 ERA.  After both players did well in High-A Lake Elsinore, Liriano and Quackenbush should be primed for extended stints with Double-A San Antonio when the 2013 campaign begins.

Liriano and Quackenbush were not the only Padres’ prospects to do well in the AFL though, especially with the Javelinas.  Second Baseman Cory Spangenberg had himself a solid 8 game stint with the club and hit .345 (10 for 29) with 1 Home Run, 3 RBI’s, and put up an incredible .500 On-Base Percentage.  Starting Pitcher Robbie Erlin also managed to shine with the Javelinas, and went 2-1 over 7 Starts and 23.2 Innings Pitched, while the Javelinas other Second Baseman, Jeudy Valdez, hit .303 (20 for 66) in 18 AFL games.  In addition to Quackenbush, Peoria also had a solid Padres prospect out of the Bullpen in the form of Matt Stites.  And all the Reliever did was go 1-0 in 12 Games, put up a 3.21 ERA, and record 15 Strike Outs in 14.0 Innings of work.

Final Thoughts

Although we will likely not see many of these prospects until late this season at the absolute earliest, I must say that it is comforting to see these (hopefully) future Friars doing so well.  While Liriano might garner most of the headlines, the performances of Erlin, Spangenberg, Quackenbush, Stites, and Valdez illustrate just how much depth this organization has at the minor league level.  I for one cannot wait to see what Manager Bud Black does with this talent once it is deemed big league ready, and I hope that happy days come soon to Petco Park.

Anyways, a tip of the cap to you Liriano and Quackenbush, and a tip of the cap to the rest of the Padres’ prospects who did so well this Fall!

Stats Courtesy of: Baseball Reference and AFL Stats